Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Spiking gold to oil ratio points to trouble for world economy

September 1, 2015 2:15 pm JST
Signs of pullback growing

Spiking gold to oil ratio points to trouble for world economy

SHUHEI YAMAMOTO, Nikkei staff writer
Gold attracts buyers looking for a safe asset when global stock prices fall.
TOKYO -- The world economy is showing signs of stress, as reflected in turbulent global stock markets. Investors and policymakers are on guard, with the outlook China and other emerging economies particularly grim.
     One closely watched commodity market index, the gold to oil ratio, or the amount of crude oil needed to buy 1 troy ounce of gold, is also flashing red. 
     The ratio is sometimes dismissed as simply comparing the relative prices of two important commodities, but many analysts say certain economic trends can be discerned by comparing the price of gold, which tends to be in high demand during economic downturns, and oil prices, which are strongly correlated with economic activity.
     The gold to oil ratio has been at historically high levels recently. On Thursday, it stood at 26.3: $1122.60 per troy ounce of gold divided by $42.56 per barrel of oil.
     The ratio topped 30, setting a new high for the year on Aug. 24. It remains high despite a slight drop since then. Historically, the index has averaged around 16.
     The current high number is due to the plunge in crude prices since last year. Oil prices are near in six and a half year lows, reflecting higher production of shale oil in the U.S. and output increases by Middle Eastern producers.
Action, reaction
By themselves, sharp falls in oil prices are not serious cause for concern. But the gold to oil ratio began to rise steeply in August, as gold purchases increased, even as crude prices fell. 
     While the ratio rose in January, mostly due to lower oil prices, the latest jump seems to be driven by risk aversion, said Tetsu Emori, CEO at Emori Capital Management, who keeps a close eye on the index. "It seems that signs of an economic downturn are behind [the increase]" he said.
     The ratio climbed to around 25 in January. Previous spikes were seen during the European debt crisis of 2011, the global financial meltdown of 2008 to 2009 and the Asian currency crisis of 1998.
     Linking growing fears of a broad economic slowdown with depreciating emerging-market currencies, one market economist said the current situation is "a return of the Asian currency crisis and may lead to a financial crisis."
     The gold to oil ratio rose as a result of declining oil prices, rather than economic trends, in the 1980s. In many cases, however, it has climbed as economic crises unfolded. Market watchers have an eerie sense that they have been here before.

Monday, September 28, 2015

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Pays $388 Million for Stake in Australia's IAG

Updated on 

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. will pay A$500 million ($388 million) for a stake in Insurance Australia Group Ltd. as part of a plan to expand in the region.
The agreement will give Berkshire 20 percent of IAG’s insurance premium payments and make it liable to pay 20 percent of claims over a decade, IAG said in a statement Tuesday. Buffett’s company will get a 3.7 percent stake in the Sydney-based firm through a placement of new shares.
Buffett, 84, has been focused on building Berkshire’s commercial-insurance operations globally. In 2013, he hired four executives from American International Group Inc. to start a company called Berkshire Hathaway Specialty. That unit began operations in Australia this year.
“The transaction gives Buffett a significant long-term exposure to the Australian market at a reasonable risk,” said T.S. Lim, a Sydney-based analyst at Bell Potter Securities Ltd. “For Insurance Australia, it is about a long-term play. That is, having the resources and scale to frustrate the smaller players in the retail market.”
The deal also frees up as much as A$700 million in capital over five years for IAG, it said, allowing it to focus on opportunities to expand in China, Thailand and Malaysia.
IAG has an option to place up to a further 5 percent with Berkshire within 24 months, according to the statement. Under a so-called standstill agreement, Berkshire will not increase its shareholding in the Australian insurer above 14.9 percent for 10 years.

Shares Jump

IAG shares jumped 4.3 percent to close at A$5.81 in Sydney, their biggest gain in more than three years. Berkshire’s Class A shares climbed 0.2 percent to $209,760 in New York.
The Australian company said it will use the deal to reduce exposure to natural disasters. The November 2014 hailstorm in Brisbane in Queensland state caused about A$1.35 billion in industrywide losses. IAG is one of the world’s largest purchasers of catastrophe reinsurance, and has had a reinsurance agreement with Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire since 2000.
The agreement with Berkshire will reduce IAG’s reinsurance needs by about 20 percent, Chief Executive Officer Mike Wilkins said on a conference call.

Australian Stakes

“Our strategic partnership with IAG will help fast-track our entry into this region,” Buffett said in the statement. “We have worked with IAG for more than 15 years and over that time we’ve developed a good understanding and respect for their people.”
The capital Berkshire will receive from the deal will be reinvested in other Australian companies, such as banks, The Age newspaper reported, citing a telephone interview with Buffett. Berkshire is looking to buy a stake in at least one of the banks, Buffett told the newspaper.
Buffett built his company over the past five decades by investing the premiums held at insurance units before claims are paid. That money, called float, was about $83.5 billionat the end of March.
The funds have allowed Berkshire to expand its operations beyond insurance. Its subsidiaries now include retailers, manufacturers, electric utilities and one of the largest U.S. railroads.
Still, the billionaire has said Berkshire’s “core” business is insurance. It sells auto policies in the U.S. through the Geico unit and is among the largest reinsurers in the world, backstopping other carriers for everything from asbestos liabilities to natural disaster claims.

‘Float Play’

The deal with IAG echoes at least one of Buffett’s earlier transactions. In 2008, Berkshire’s namesake reinsurance operation began taking on a portion of the premiums and liabilities from Swiss Re AG.
Last month, Buffett said that the reinsurance business wouldn’t be as good in the next decade as it has been in the last 30 years. Hedge funds, pensions and other investors have been piling into the market in search of above-average returns. That competition has pushed down the price of coverage.
The deal with IAG is “a float play,” said Meyer Shields, an analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods. “It’s a way of rebuilding what’s being lost on the reinsurance side.”

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Soccer star compensation



When a player of the calibre of Manchester United’s Wayne Rooney can earn more than £15m a year, asking how they can survive comfortably until retirement and beyond seems a redundant question. But these staggering sums are earned only by the beautiful game’s elite; the average weekly salary for a Premier League player was about £31,000 in 2012/13, according to Deloitte.

With a Premiership career lasting just eight years on average, this can add up to much more modest figures when spread over a lifetime. Pay also drops off quickly in lower leagues, averaging £6,000 a week in the Championship, £1,700 in League One and £800 in League Two in 2013/14.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Video Data Usage

Live video consumes less data than high-definition video because it is lower quality. But watching just five minutes of Periscope broadcasts on a smartphone was equivalent to nearly two hours of Web surfing or sending and receiving 300 emails, according to tests by The Wall Street Journal. At that rate, watching five minutes daily over a month would consume nearly 50% of a 2 GB data plan costing $30, according to the Journal tests measured against AT&T’s online data calculator. (The Journal ran multiple tests on an Android-operated phone on LTE networks indoors and outdoors, during which the tester broadcast, browsed and viewed streams in five-minute increments.)

Consumers routinely go over their data plan, which can trigger slower speeds on some carriers or overage charges on others. Nearly half of wireless users aged 18 to 34 run out of data each month, according to a Sprint Corp. sponsored study in July. T-Mobile USInc. now throttles back data speeds when customers hit their limit, but it estimates that more than 20 million U.S. consumers industrywide were hit with overages in 2013 and paid out more than $1 billion in overage fees. Only two carriers—Sprint and T-Mobile—still sell plans with unlimited data.

Videos are expected to account for 60% of all mobile data traffic by 2020, up from 31% in 2012, according to Ericsson. Smartphone users are noticing the strain on their budgets. About 37% of respondents say they limit watching mobile videos because of the data cost, according to a report this month from Ericsson.

Monday, September 21, 2015

China elbowing US out of Pacific tuna trade

September 10, 2015 7:00 pm JST
Fight for fish

China elbowing US out of Pacific tuna trade

MICHAEL FIELD, Contributing writer

A catch of pole-caught skipjack tuna in Fakaofo, Tokelau (photo by Michael Field)
AUCKLAND, New Zealand -- A political battle is brewing in the Pacific over tuna as rising competition from Chinese vessels sours long-standing fishing arrangements between the U.S. and Pacific island nations.
     After lengthy negotiations, the U.S. reached an interim agreement in August to raise its payments to a group of Pacific nations for access to tuna stocks in their exclusive economic zones for 2016. However, regional fishing authorities remain lukewarm about the long-term future of the arrangement, believing that China is prepared to pay more.
     The U.S. has extended the 1987 South Pacific Tuna Treaty annually since 2013, but it has failed repeatedly to reach a new long-term agreement with the Pacific island nations. The result was the same at recent talks in Brisbane, Australia, on Aug. 5. Washington has now threatened not to extend the treaty after 2016. Yet despite such hard talk, the U.S. may have to return to the negotiating table as world tuna stocks fall and prices spiral higher.
Big Chinese money
The interim treaty requires that each of 37 U.S.-registered purse seine, or dragnet, vessels that are registered to fish in the Pacific nations' exclusive economic zones pay a "vessel day scheme" rate of $12,600 a day in 2016, 34% more than this year's day rate. U.S. vessels will be allowed up to 5,700 fishing days, down from this year's allotment of 8,300. Purse seine vessels target skipjack tuna, the species most favored for canning.
     The trade is largely controlled by a group called the Parties to the Nauru Agreement, which comprises the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu.
     The PNA said the reduction in daily permits would help to conserve 50% of the world's sustainable tuna stocks. But market observers have pointed out that group members are being lured by offers of higher prices from Chinese fishing groups.
     Ruth Matagi-Tofiga, a member of the Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council, a consultative body established under U.S. law, echoed industry resentment about the actions of the PNA. She said PNA members were using conservation as an excuse for taking "more lucrative offers."
     A diplomatic official involved in the tuna trade told the Nikkei Asian Review that Papua New Guinea had sold some daily permits at $12,000 each to Chinese fishery groups, and that other distant-water fishing nations were also paying significantly more than the benchmark price set in the treaty.
     Kiribati is refusing to sell fishing days to the U.S. because it is getting more from the Chinese groups, whose government offers aid and subsidies to the industry. The relationship between the PNA and the Chinese is shrouded in secrecy and payment levels are not officially disclosed.
     A former official of a multinational regulatory body, who is now involved in the tuna market, said the best way forward would be to adopt an open-market policy and allow competing nations to bid for fishing days, which would "start a real market and trading."
     He added, "The Pacific needs to sell fewer days at a higher price and keep the fish stocks strong."
     According to Transform Aqorau, chief executive of the PNA, the group has begun selling some fishing days by tender this year in addition to the deal with the U.S., and has received higher values. Aqorau said this showed that the waters were "increasingly valuable and competitive."
   J. Douglas Hines, executive director of California-based South Pacific Tuna, which represents a fleet of 14 U.S. purse seines, expressed disappointment that the U.S. and the Pacific nations had failed to reach a longer-term agreement, saying he hoped the PNA would recognize "the contribution of the U.S. as its important ally and work towards a resolution."
"Time to share"
Some in the Pacific nations argue that profits from tuna fishing have far exceeded payments by U.S. companies and claim that it is time for profits to be shared more equally.
     "[The U.S.] had been used to sending fisheries teams to island capitals once a year to negotiate license fees, which historically paid just pennies compared to the profits reaped by the fishing countries," writes Giff Johnson in his new book "Idyllic No More: Pacific Island Climate, Corruption and Development Dilemmas."
     China is already dominating tuna fishing in the open ocean outside the Pacific nations' exclusive economic zones. And it has the capacity to expand its reach in the region.
     The Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission, which administers an international convention among Pacific nations with fishing grounds and countries sending fishing fleets, said China has 669 vessels authorized to fish in the high seas, including 11 purse seine vessels. The commission said the U.S. has 214, including 40 purse seine vessels.
     Another industry group, the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency, said that 297 Chinese vessels, including 18 purse seine vessels, were authorized to fish within the exclusive economic zones. The agency, based in the Solomon Islands, said the U.S. had 38 vessels, all purse seines. Some boats are licensed to fish in both the open ocean and exclusive economic zones, which can lead to some inconsistencies in reported figures.
     James Movick, director general of the agency, said 100 new Chinese boats had come into the region in the last three years, mostly large super-frozen long-line vessels, which are more efficient at catching tuna and processing it on board. Movick said the construction, financing and operating costs of these vessels were subsidized by Beijing, which allowed them to operate in circumstances in which other vessels would not be viable.
     "We've encouraged them to work with the Pacific island countries ... and bring some of the benefits to [them]," said Movick.
Pretty penny
With competition already high, U.S. boats have not been helped by a squeeze on tuna stocks due to conservation efforts. In June, Washington closed U.S. Pacific waters to purse seine vessels. President Barack Obama has also banned trawlers in a newly expanded area in a remote region of the U.S. Pacific islands.
     In addition, the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission has banned for four months the use of fish aggregating devices -- buoys or floats tethered to the ocean floor that attract pelagic fish such as skipjack.
     "Fears are rife also that the El Nino phenomenon may have an impact on catches," the PNA warned. El Nino, the name given to intermittent changes in Pacific temperatures, is thought to be heating up the central Pacific, attracting tuna away from their usual fishing grounds.
     With all these factors at play, skipjack tuna prices at the benchmark Bangkok market leapt 50% to $1,500 per metric ton at the end of July from May. In Ecuador, skipjack was selling at $1,450 per ton.
     While that price is still lower than the record $2,300 set in mid-2013, it is expected to move higher. In a PNA market update on Sept. 1, the group said Bangkok market insiders report skipjack prices are remaining at the $1,500 high "as scarcity continues to influence demand." 

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Rating Agencies and Cat Bonds

In 2013, S&P made ratings on 1.1m issues and Moody's on 900,000.

To become a qualified rating agency, new ones must become a nationally recognized statistical rating organization (NRSRO) which is significantly difficult for new firms.

Cat bonds market is USD 5-10bn and yield 8%pa. Market has grown to USD 20bn. But yield also fell to 5% as investors piled in. If disaster happens, issuer keeps the principal.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Anheuser-Busch InBev eyes takeover of rival SABMiller


updated: September 16, 2015 6:26 pm

Anheuser-Busch InBev eyes takeover of rival SABMiller

Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest brewer, is exploring a takeover of rival SABMiller in a deal that would create a $275bn company responsible for one out of every three beers produced globally.
A tie-up between the owner of Budweiser and Stella Artois and the group behind Peroni and Grolsch would rank as one of the six largest takeovers in history and the biggest in a year that was already the strongest for blockbuster deals since 2007.
It would mark the latest stage of a remarkable consolidation in the global brewing industry driven by a group of Brazilian investors led by Jorge Paulo Lemann. They are also the founders of 3G Capital, the Brazilian private equity group, which has been buying up US food companies including Heinz, Kraft and Burger King, sometimes with the support of serial investor Warren Buffett.
A series of deals over the past decade have transformed AB InBev and SAB into the world’s two biggest brewers and the two — along with Heineken and Carlsberg — make half the world’s beer.
Ironically, the industry has consolidated just as consumer tastes in beer are fragmenting. The big brewers face a growing challenge from craft beer, popular with millennial and younger drinkers who reject what they perceive as the bland offerings of the big multinationals.
SABMiller said on Wednesday it had been informed that AB InBev intended to make a bid proposal for the company but it had not received any such proposal or details about its terms.
“The board of SABMiller will review and respond as appropriate to any proposal which might be made,” it said in a statement after the Financial Times told the company it intended to report the approach.
Comprehensive AB InBev coverage
 Grand designs Rock lessons Andrew Hill comment

AB InBev’s bold dreams of expansion originated with Jorge Paulo Lemann, the group’s single biggest shareholder

Lombard says SABMiller chief Alan Clark would do well to tap into AC/DC lyrics while considering his next move

The FT’s management editor examines how the Budweiser brewer has sharpened its takeover and integration tactics
Under rules guiding takeovers in the UK, AB InBev has until 5pm on October 14 to make a firm offer to SABMiller.
AB InBev later confirmed that it had made an approach, saying its intention was “to work with SABMiller’s board toward a recommended transaction”.
Shares in SABMiller closed up 20 per cent to £36.14 in London, giving it a market capitalisation of £58.5bn ($90.7bn). SABMiller has net debt of about £7.5bn. AB InBev shares closed up 6 per cent at €100.5, giving a market capitalisation of €161.6bn ($182.6bn).
chart: Global beer market share
AB InBev is hoping to engage the management of SAB in a friendly transaction, said people familiar with the matter.
It is being advised by Lazard, the independent investment bank, and law firm Freshfields. SAB is working with advisers at Robey Warshaw, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, as well as lawyers at Linklaters.
It is unclear whether SAB, which counts the tobacco company Altria and Colombia’s Santo Domingo family as its largest shareholders, is interested in pursuing a deal. On Tuesday it emerged that Altria, which has a 27 per cent stake in SAB, had cancelled two appearances this week at consumer goods conferences hosted by BofA Merrill Lynch and Stifel, fuelling speculation that SAB might be in play.


Hard-nosed kings of beer

Working for the world’s largest brewer is not to everybody’s taste — and that is fine with Carlos Brito, Anheuser-Busch InBev’s chief executive.
Given the size of the two companies, AB InBev would have to agree to divestitures in order to obtain regulatory approval for a deal in multiple countries, including the US and China.
SABMiller has a near-30 per cent share of the US beer market through MillerCoors, its joint venture with Molson Coors. It also has 23 per cent of China’s beer market through a joint venture with China Resources Enterprise, known as CR Snow, while AB InBev has a 15 per cent share of the Chinese market.
Trevor Stirling, analyst at Bernstein said: “The US Department of Justice would almost certainly insist on the disposal of SAB’s stake in MillerCoors in the USA. And ABI might also have to dispose of SAB’s 49 per cent stake in CR Snow in China. But it is also likely that Molson Coors and CRE would be willing purchasers respectively.”
People who have studied a potential tie-up between AB InBev and SAB in the past said AB InBev would be ready to sell SAB’s stake in the joint venture with Molson Coors.
Mr Lemann’s first foray into beer came in 1989, when he and his partners acquired control of Brahma, a Brazilian brewer. Ten years later Brahma took over Antarctica, Brazil’s biggest brewery, to create Ambev, which supplied Mr Lemann with the firepower to acquire Belgium’s Interbrew in 2004, creating InBev. The last blockbuster acquisition was the $52bn deal with Anheuser-Busch of the US that led to today’s AB InBev.
Fitch, the rating agency, has noted, an AB InBev-SABMiller merger “would create a global player, thus further widening the gap with rivals Heineken and Carlsberg. It would be exposed to high growth and profitable markets and would require only limited divestments in relation to market overlaps”.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Nikkei Japan: 500 Startups

US fund 500 Startups joins race to finance Japanese ventures

SACHIKO DESHIMARU, Nikkei staff writer

500 Startups founder Dave McClure discusses the firm's new fund for Japanese venture investment at the Tech in Asia conference.
TOKYO -- American venture capital firm 500 Startups will step up its Japanese involvement with a new fund, joining the rush of companies moving into the largely untapped startup market here in light of the weak yen.
     500 Startups will invest in ventures in robotics, health care and other fields with global applicability through a new Japan fund announced Tuesday. The fund will have $30 million in assets, founding partner Dave McClure revealed at the Tech in Asia conference. The firm will establish a Tokyo office as it seeks a larger presence in the country.
     500 Startups provides a relatively small amount of funding -- as low as several million yen -- to a large number of emerging companies. The California-based company has funded around 1,200 ventures since its 2010 inception. It has some previous experience in Japan, backing electric-wheelchair developer Whill and others. But all investments came through 500 Startups' U.S. fund.
     The new Japanese fund will expand 500 Startups' Asian operations, which include funds in South Korea and Vietnam. The project will back Japanese startups in fields that call for a high degree of expertise. Robotics will be one focus, following Google's acquisition of a humanoid-robot venture born at the University of Tokyo. Health care, including cutting-edge Japanese developments in regenerative medicine, is another top interest.
Rising tide
500 Startups is not the only American player looking to compete in the Japanese game. California-based Fenox Venture Capital unveiled in July plans to put some 20 billion yen ($166 million) into startups here over the next three years, compared with just 400 million yen last year.
     "The Japanese venture world is a mountain of undiscovered possibility," CEO Anis Uzzaman said. "I wouldn't be surprised if we found the next Mark Zuckerberg here."
     Uzzaman has deep ties to the Japanese startup world, having studied at the Tokyo Institute of Technology. Fenox has previously backed Tokyo-based electric-motorbike developer Terra Motors and others.
     The softening yen is largely responsible for overseas investors' renewed interest in promising Japanese tech startups. Funding from abroad to ventures here has jumped dramatically this year, with each dollar of support packing a heftier punch.
A world of possibility
Foreign venture capitalists are also looking to buy up promising Japanese businesses. U.S. education company EnglishCentral acquired earlier this month Langrich, a startup offering English lessons via video call. "We expect a synergistic boost to our performance as we expand internationally," said Masayasu Morita, CEO of Langrich parent Hitomedia.
     Japanese ventures themselves are growing more amenable to funding from and acquisition by companies abroad. Many founders previously emphasized developing their companies in the home market before going global. But as increasing smartphone use and other developments have made national borders less significant to businesses, more startups have turned their eyes to the world stage from the outset.
     The involvement of backers abroad is starting to speed the pace of business development in Japan. Joining forces with 500 Startups has proved useful in finding customers and business partners, given the firm's global network, said Matthew Romaine, CEO of translation service provider Gengo. The company was one of 500 Startups' first investments here.
     Sources overseas provided in 2014 around 3% of the funding received by Japanese ventures 5 years old or younger, up from nearly zero in 2013, a survey by the Venture Enterprise Center found. Venture investment in Japan still lags behind that in China and Singapore, and amounts to just a fraction of the nearly $50 billion that U.S. startups receive. The market here is yet largely untapped and ready to grow.