Saturday, November 28, 2015

Olam's humble Verghese has big plans for Africa

November 28, 2015 9:55 pm JST
CEO in the news

Olam's humble Verghese has big plans for Africa

TOMOMI KIKUCHI, Nikkei staff writer
SINGAPORE -- Sunny Verghese, co-founder and CEO of Olam International, a Singapore-based commodities trader, knows Africa like no one else in the field. Starting with a cashew trading business in Nigeria 26 years ago, he has built up a commodities-sourcing and -processing network across the continent. Now he is looking at Africa again -- as a consumer market about to blossom.
     Making the most of the opportunity will not be easy. To gain financial support for his long-term goals, Verghese made a decisive move in August, joining hands with Mitsubishi Corp., welcoming the Japanese trading house as Olam's second-largest shareholder. To underscore the partnership, Verghese announced on Nov. 13 a joint venture would be formed in Japan.
     "We see Mitsubishi as a long-term strategic partner," Verghese said, calling the deal an "important next step" in aligning his goals with a set of like-minded shareholders. For Mitsubishi Corp. and its 20% stake, Olam is the gateway to Africa, an untapped market for the Japanese commodities giant.
    Despite Olam's rapid expansion during the past 26 years, the India-born Verghese lacks a gung-ho demeanor. Born to a middle-class family in Kerala, in South India, his petite stature, calm eyes and ready smile hardly present the image of an over-zealous deal-maker with global ambitions.
     In fact, Verghese's expansion strategy has always been a careful one, similar to planting one seed after another in a field.
     Risk management has been Olam's modus operandi since its beginnings. Verghese set foot in Africa in the mid-1980s, when he was sent to Nigeria by the Indian conglomerate Kewalram Chanrai Group to run its cotton business. Verghese saw an opportunity when the Nigerian government liberalized commodities trading as a means to boost its nonoil exports. Nigerian exporters had little knowledge of risk management mechanisms and would often default on contracts. "We felt that if we set up a reliable procurement network," Verghese said, "and delivered goods in a reliable and consistent way to customers in the developed world, we could establish and grow that business."
     Nigeria was where he nurtured the "blueprint in my mind to start Olam." There, he led the vertical integration of Kewalram Chanrai's cotton operation for four years, setting up plantations and processing facilities to rely less on imports for raw materials. He learned local integration better manages risks by fending off currency and other volatile markets.
     He founded his own company in 1989 along with his basic strategy -- integration in selective businesses. The name Olam is derived from a Hebrew word meaning "to transcend boundaries."
     "We integrate based on where the profit pool is," Verghese said. "And [by always] asking ourselves the question, 'Can we win if we go upstream or midstream?'"
     Olam now boasts a portfolio of 44 products in 65 countries, 24 in Africa. Starting with cashews, Verghese ventured into "neighboring" products like almonds and hazelnuts, eventually expanding into high-demand commodities like cocoa and coffee. Olam today is the world's leading supplier of cashews and sesame seeds as well as the largest trader of cocoa. The company sits among the top three global suppliers of coffee. 
Investors' blessing
There have been some lumps along the way. 
     In the 1990s, Olam was lured by a Singaporean government agency to set up a base in the island nation. With attractive tax incentives and plans to set up operations in Asia, Verghese moved Olam's headquarters from London to Singapore in 1996, eventually listing its stocks on the Singapore Exchange and welcoming Temasek Holdings, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, as a major shareholder.
     In 2012, Olam was hit by its greatest crisis -- it came under attack by short-seller Muddy Waters, which accused Olam of irregular accounting practices to boost its bottom line. Olam's share price slumped over 20% soon after the accusation.
     "This whole bogy of trying to say that we have some kind of liquidity crisis cannot be corroborated," Verghese said at a press conference soon after the attack. But his manner was calm, as usual, and he showed little sign of stress. Verghese thanked Temasek for retaining its stake, calling the state fund's gesture "the biggest support I can ask for."
     Later, Temasek came to Olam's rescue by increasing its stake, at one point controlling over 80% through a consortium led by a Temasek-owned unit -- a move that reflected the state fund's support for Olam's long-term plans to invest and build up its business.
     More recently, another crisis set in: Commodity prices began plunging. Amid the downturn, Verghese managed to secure another investor, Mitsubishi Corp. "Olam's network of farmers, processing capabilities and distribution networks in Africa is very attractive, and its product portfolio is complementary to ours," said Hideyuki Hori, general manager of Mitsubishi Corp.'s Living Essentials Group.
     With the added stability of long-term shareholders, Verghese is aiming big. "In the past, we followed an approach called 'string of pearls,' where we do a chain of small-scale acquisitions," said Verghese. "Going forward, we will do fewer acquisitions, but we will do larger ones."
     Verghese would not elaborate but hinted upcoming investments will be made in Africa. He said Olam's packaged food business in Africa has "built a strong distribution network" over the past eight years by leveraging the company's existing channels for rice and other staples.
     These channels, it should be noted, have been built on a continent known for its lack of infrastructure.
     The world has long depended on Africa for its coffee, chocolate and other simple pleasures. Now Verghese is ready to invest big to tap the continent as a potential consumer market. Africa's middle classes are surging. Aligned with annual growth of around 8%, consumer demand is likely to add around $1.1 trillion to African gross domestic product by 2019. Ethiopia, Uganda and Nigeria are among the fastest growing markets, according to Deloitte, the big consultancy.
     Verghese considers his company to be one step ahead of other global food giants eyeing the African market. "When we started, they were not very interested in Africa," he said. "Now, they are very keen."
     Olam's African joint venture with Japan's Sanyo Foods is one of Nigeria's leading producers of tomato paste, candies, yogurt drinks and juices, to name only several of the company's products.
     Verghese said Olam and Mitsubishi Corp. will examine areas of collaboration in upstream, midstream and downstream African businesses. Bringing packaged food products produced by Mitsubishi Corp.'s subsidiaries is a possibility, he said.
     While analysts think Mitsubishi Corp.'s investment will help Olam to strengthen its balance sheet and go ahead with its long-term expansion plan, there are some short-term headwinds. OCBC Investment Research analyst Carey Wong said Olam's recent quarterly results fell "below expectations," with the company's dairy farming business underperforming and the packaged food business in Africa suffering from Nigeria's currency devaluation.
     "But there is definitely a shift in consumer behavior for packaged food" in Africa, Wong added. He continued that Olam's challenge is to differentiate its product lines from other brands as competition increases on the continent, then quickly react to changes in consumer behavior.
     "Olam's main wholesale business will benefit as global food companies produce more products in Africa, so it works both ways," Wong said, adding that Olam's diversified portfolio will help it weather downturns in the commodities market.

Friday, November 27, 2015

Vietnam ppty

First tranche 27 Nov 2015

Exch rate based on
SCB Viet book 22380
vs Google 22485

Spread 50bps

Transfer USD 17,800
VND 398,364,000
Amt needed 385, 989,056

First tranche actual: VND 400,244,000

Remainder 12,374,944 or c.USD 550

Thursday, November 26, 2015

MemoryPower

System A

1. Grow Vegetables - bean sprouts straight up
2. Music Platform - 2: treble and bass
3. Photography - tripod
4. Druk - dragon with 4 legs
5. Family and Friends - F for Five, Five key members
6. Pottery - wheel throwing
7. Volunteer - seVen
8. Build Berkshire - BB8
9. Roundtable - Sep class Level 1 & 2
10. See the world - 10 cities, 10 years


System X

1. Meditate - One Mind
2. Write two notes - knowledge and task
3. 3 Sets of exercise - Chair, Crunch, Cobra
4. Read four news or newspaper - ST, FT, WSJ, NKI

Above to be done in the morning

5. Family Hug
6. Six syllabus mantra
7. Weigh to 70 kg
8. Eight 8 km run
9. Nine o'clock news
10. Sleep at ten pm!


Cities
1. Machu Pichu
2. Xian - World #2 Economy
3. Potala Palace - Third Gallery
4. Eygpt - 4 bases of the pyramid
5. Easter Island - E is #5
6. Gaudi La Sagrada Familia - Six tower tops
7. Niagara Falls - 7 looks like waterfall from side
8. Ayer Rocks - Ayer and 8 same sound
9. Jiu Zhai Gou - 9 and Jiu
10. Aurora

FT: Container shipping lines seek solace in greater scale


Container shipping lines seek solace in greater scale

Merger talks between CMA CGM and NOL highlight consolidation
F16XFF Large container ship passes under Bayonne Bridge, NJ en route towards Newark Harbour
A container ship passes under the Bayonne Bridge, heading for Newark bay
O
n the Bayonne Bridge, high above the water that connects New York harbour with New Jersey’s Newark bay, workers are starting to build a new roadway 64 feet above the existing one. This ambitious construction project will clear the way for the new generation of giant container ships to reach New Jersey’s bustling terminals, part of the US east coast’s busiest port complex.
The need to raise the Bayonne Bridge highlights how container shipping lines are betting on scale to solve their deep-rooted problems — partly by investing in bigger vessels and, in some cases, by embarking on mergers. The latest evidence of this came on Sunday when France’s CMA CGMannounced it was in exclusive talks to buy Singapore’s Neptune Orient Lines, a lossmaking line that operates under the APL brand name.
Many analysts say that a purchase of NOL — operator of just 2.6 per cent of the world’s fleet — might provide CMA CGM with little respite from these tough conditions.Yet the question for the industry is whether the quest for scale will alleviate or exacerbate a looming crisis resulting from the collapse in demand to ship goods to China, container shipping’s biggest single market. Average freight rates to move a forty-foot container on the world’s main east-west trade routes have nearly halved since August to about $840, as the industry’s capacity growth far exceeded demand.
Simon Heaney, research manager for Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, a London-based consultancy, says that container lines’ revenues are “absolutely tanking” as the rate to move a container plunges to the lowest level since the financial crisis of 2008-09. “We don’t see a lot of logic in this deal,” he says of the talks between CMA CGM and NOL. “APL is a chronic lossmaker.”
The thinking behind the expansion of both container ships and lines is nevertheless clear — both are ways of minimising the fixed costs of moving a container, and hence boost profit margins in a volatile, highly cyclical industry.
Big ships that are as long as 400m still require only one crew to operate and their fuel requirements and construction costs have risen far more modestly than the largest vessels’ capacity, which has doubled to 19,000 twenty-foot equivalent units of containers over the past 10 years. Such ships, when operating full, should be able to make money more easily even when freight rates are low.
“Big ships enable carriers to reduce their break-even level,” says Mr Heaney.
Similar logic applies to some companies’ determination to increase their share of the market. Shipping lines have formed alliances — similar to those between airlines — to pool cargo and ensure they can operate their vast new vessels as close to full as possible.
Company mergers should achieve a similar effect. Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd last year bought Chile’s CSAV, while China’s China Shipping Container Lines and Cosco — both state-controlled — are in talks about merging their companies to become the fourth-biggest line by capacity.
CMA CGM on Sunday said that, if it acquired NOL, it would contribute to the consolidation of container shipping “at a time when scale is more critical than ever”.
“It would further reinforce CMA CGM as a global force in container shipping, leveraging the strong geographic and operational complementarity of both groups,” said the company.
Yet the steady stream of mammoth new ships from shipyards in Korea and China may be helping to create the dire conditions from which CMA CGM and others are seeking protection. While Drewry forecasts a sharp fall in container trade growth because of China’s economic slowdown — from about 5 per cent in 2014 to 2.2 per cent this year — many in the industry see the flood of new ships as a still bigger problem. Drewry forecasts container ship capacity will increase 7.7 per cent this year.
Paul Slater, chief executive of First International, a ship finance consultancy, says the influx of huge, new vessels has increased the number of spaces available to containers on ships by an “extraordinary percentage”. “This is excess capacity driven,” he says of the slump in rates.
The rate decline prompted Denmark’s AP Møller-Maersk, owner of Maersk Line, the world’s biggest container ship operator by capacity, to last month issue a profit warning.
Harry Theochari, global head of transport for Norton Rose Fulbright, says CMA CGM — the number three container line — may be acting primarily from concern over Maersk’s market power. Alphaliner, an information site, estimates Maersk controls 14.7 per cent of container ship capacity. It has formed an alliance with Mediterranean Shipping Company, the market number two.
Maersk, which was initially competing with CMA CGM to buy NOL, has pulled out. CMA CGM originally wanted to form a three-way alliance with Maersk and MSC but it was rejected on competition grounds. “I think they’re just protecting their position,” says Mr Theochari, referring to CMA CGM.
There remain some positive reasons for CMA CGM to pursue a merger with NOL. Peter Tirschwell, editor of the Journal of Commerce, a trade periodical, points out NOL has a strong reputation in Southeast Asia and a powerful position in trans-Pacific routes.
Yet, according to Mr Heaney and many others in the industry, container shipping lines may, as the market slows, have far bigger things to worry about than continuing the dash for larger ships and companies.
“Being big as the market heads for a downturn is not a great position to hold,” says Mr Heaney. “By virtue of the fact that you’re moving that many boxes, the risk is magnified.”

Iron Ore 2015

Oversupplied by 150mt by 2018

BHP record pdtn 233mt

Vale building USD 16bn operations