China Aviation Oil CAO SP

40% market share in import jet fuel in China

Cheatsheet

FCF 30-90m SGD, hard to pin point further, historically volatile

DCF

Risk: regulatory

Defense Spending

North Korea 15-25% of GDP 3.4-9.5bn USD
US 3.3% 596bn
South Korea 2.6% 36.4bn
China 1.9% 215bn
Japan 1% 40bn

Citi ELN

NKE UN strike $45.85
UA UN strike $33.52
AAPL UN $83.71

7 Aug 2017 Expiration

Current UA $25 - 35% below strike

Trades Dec 16

SIE SP
6k @ 3.35

Trades Nov 16

S CCT @ 1.51, 2200 = 3322, profit 1122
S MINT @ 1.645, 4000 = 6580, profit 2260
S OCBC @ 8.78, 1500 = 13170, profit 1245
S DBS @ 16.36, 1200 = 19623, profit 1692
Raised 42.7k

POSB Everyday Card and HSBC Card

POSB

Spend $700 on restaurants get 3% or 9% rebate

Spend at participating places

1. SPC
2. Watsons
3. ShengSiong
4. Standard Photo
5. EpiCentre

Oct 16 $33 Daily Dollars

HSBC

$400 per month
5% on Mobile and TV and Internet Bill
3% on Groceries
19% Petrol
1% Dining

$800 per month
5% on Mobile and TV and Internet Bill
5% on Groceries
21% Petrol
2% Dining

$1 earn 1 reward point

Queens Peak

50k Saxo
550k D
100k SCB / Citi

700k

To raise

100k stocks
(SMRT 20k, XMBR 20k, QAF 10k, JCNC 30k)
(CCT, MINT, GENS, SMM, DBS, OCBC c.50k)

100k Citi - need Jingumae txn

200k Sal

400k

Shortfall 200k

Jingumae Loan

1 x 20k at 75 Oct 16
2 x 20k at 80
c. 5m yen

Need one more 1 x 20k at 72

Repay 15m at 82 at Citi
Left 30m

Free up 100k?

DFI SP - Part 2

Format breakdown

EBIT and margins

Brands

Format details

Supermarkets / Hypermarts

CVS

'

Health and Beauty

Home Furnishing

DFI SP - Regions (Part 1)

Charts - Part 1

Region breakdown, sales, EBIT and margins

Overall Store Count

North Asia

East Asia

South Asia: ASEAN

Diary Entry

29 September 2016

Dear Diary,

My wife is not at home today and I am taking care of my two kids. My son has home based learning and my daughter refused to go to school in the morning. But we managed to convince her after 20 minutes.

Today will be a long day, I have to meet an analyst later and I have to fix the car as well. The car tire had punctured and had been in the car park for four days. In the evening I have to cook dinner as well.

I will do my best. I CAN DO IT!

JJsienceadventure

Portsnap Todo, Trade Sep 16

1. B DIS @ 92, 130 shr
2. B RB/ @ 7218, 100 shr
3. B DB1 @7218, 150 shr
4. S Fairwood @ 36.95, 2k shr
5. Top Up CPF 2k (5k more)
6. Paid 385,989,056 VND @ 22300 USD
(c.$23556 or US$17300)


Todo

1. top up cpf J,K,M
2. PS -> SCB 50
3. Saxo deploy 50
4. SRS J -> UOB, RFMD

6. Sale
a. XMBR 5k (Joint)
b. 1088 H
c. QAF
d. AMVIG
e. Genting
f. BATS
g. Release JCNC

h. 20 JPY @ 72
i. pay down 15m @ Citi @ 85

Myanmar Jade Trade

Much of the jadeite which delighted the 19th-century Chinese Empress Dowager Cixi and still pleases her modern compatriots comes from Myanmar, whose “imperial jade” is the world’s most valuable and is highly sought-after for its near-transparent emerald-green hues. (Jadeite, which is rare, comes from Myanmar; what is thought of as Chinese jade is in fact the more common nephrite.)

But the grandeur of China’s Imperial Palace is a far cry from the mining towns in northern Myanmar. Here the ye ma say (hand-pickers) scratch a living in difficult conditions, searching for jadeite through waste dumped by mining companies on the blackened hills of the world’s largest jadeite mining region, Hpakant, in Kachin state. Whatever they find, they sell back to traders and miners.

According to a 2015 report on Myanmar’s jade trade from campaigning organisation Global Witness, most of the jadeite extracted from Hpakant is smuggled to China to avoid tariffs. Global Witness’ investigations into the undeclared value of the trade in Myanmar have suggested it may be as high as $31bn annually — half of the country’s GDP, or 46 times government spending on healthcare. At the annual jade emporium in 2014, a single boulder of it was given a reserve price of €60m, according to an unpublished report.

In June, in a case that gained international attention, a group of jade traders alleged that senior officials in previous governments had colluded with powerful business interests to appropriate $96m from a levy on the annual jade auction. The government launched a probe, which quickly found that the officials, including a former Navy commander and minister, acted within the law.

Juman Kubba, a senior campaigner with Global Witness, says the industry remains a “black box” and that “simply saying there is ‘no corruption’ is not good enough”.

Kyaw Kyaw Oo, chairman of the KIC Group, which operates jade businesses and was one of those complaining to the government, says the evidence is there if officials bother to look. “Here in front of me I have a lot of receipts detailing how the money was spent. If you check the details of how this money was spent you will see how it was misused,” he says. The Financial Times has seen translations of these receipts, which suggest politicians and industrialists took the fund’s money.

Very little of the revenue from jadeite has made its way into the local economy. According to the World Bank, the biggest producers are Chinese-owned front companies (foreign ownership is illegal) and the majority of buyers fly in from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Until last year there were no customs duties on jade, and there are already methods for avoiding the 30 per cent levy on rough gemstone exports introduced last year. To avoid taxes, mines may register the stones, but at deflated prices, before selling the jade on to shell companies. A chaotic shadow economy, the jade business is permeated by corruption and ties to ethnic conflict and warlordism, Global Witness says. It estimates $6.2bn in mine site tax was lost in 2014.

The state regulator, the Myanmar Gems Enterprise, has announced that permits for more than 300 jade and gem blocks will expire this month and a moratorium on new permits was declared in July.

Also of concern to transparency groups is the use of so-called “other accounts” by the MGE to amass revenues with no public scrutiny. Myanmar’s first EITI report showed the MGE retained over half of the official gemstone revenues — more than $200m — in these accounts, which Mr Salomon called a “modest estimate”. The real figure amassed in its accounts, he says, is likely far in excess of $650m.

Mr Kyaw Kyaw of the KIC Group says that transparency measures have to be enforced while Chinese demand remains high. “There needs to be punishment for people who break the law. But without the army and police’s help, we cannot make this work. If they participate and support this action, then, perhaps, things will change.”

Australia gambling

“At first they were a bit of fun,” said Seselja, who sought help after almost joining the estimated 400 Australians with gambling-related problems who commit suicide every year. “It’s so normalized in Australia. There’s machines on just about every street corner.”

About one in six Australians who play regularly has a serious addiction and loses on average about A$21,000 a year, according to government data. The social cost of gambling to the community is estimated to be at least A$4.7 billion a year.

“Most customers are consenting adults happy to be entertained, and are educated enough to know what their odds are,” Hill said, adding his club’s machines are programmed to cost gamblers an average 8 cents of every dollar played.

The first spin elicits a release of dopamine in the same way as a drug affects an addict, said Charles Livingstone, a lecturer at the School of Public Health and Preventative Medicine at Monash University in Melbourne. Then any wins trigger more surges of the hormone, he said.

“Getting onto the machine and starting to use it provides an anticipatory rush,” said Livingstone, who has studied gambling and its effects for 20 years. “The lack of notice for when a prize actually arrives is also part of the thrill. People find it extremely difficult to give up gambling and often turn to help only when they’ve exhausted all of their funds.’’

As many as 500,000 people in Australia either have a gambling problem or risk developing one and slot machines pose the biggest risk, the government estimates. Problem gamblers can lose around A$21,000 a year each, it says.

Pushing for more protective legislation, some lawmakers gathered in Sydney on Tuesday to urge gaming addicts and industry insiders to tell their stories. Pokies use “misleading strategies” to hook “vulnerable and stressed Australians,” Greens Senator Larissa Waters said.

The most successful slot machines condition humans to behave in a certain way, the 2010 inquiry by the government’s Productivity Commission found. The commission drew comparisons with work on animals by Harvard professor Skinner in the mid-20th century.

‘Pathological Gambler’

Skinner trained a pigeon in a box to peck a disc to receive food. He found that if food appeared intermittently, rather than after each peck, the pigeon would repeatedly tap the disc in anticipation. He argued this system of random rewards was at the heart of gambling and a pigeon could become a “pathological gambler” in the same way as a person.

Kate Seselja was once one of them. A recovering gambling addict from Murrambateman in rural New South Wales, Seselja says she felt hypnotized by pokies and spent more than A$500,000 on the machines.  

“You keep pressing the buttons whether you’re winning or losing,” she said. “It sounds laughable, but I fooled myself into believing there was skill in playing.”

Stay out of box

by seeing people as they are
show care and concern
see people as people not as objects
or tools
help them find their happiness

Portsnap Todo

Todo

1. top up cpf 50 J
2. PS -> SCB 50
3. Saxo deploy 50
4. EUR 30 -> DB1
5. GBP -> RB/ or WPP
6. SRS J -> UOB, RFMD

7. Sale
a. XMBR 5k (Joint)
b. 1088 H
c. QAF
d. AMVIG
e. Genting
f. BATS
g. Release JCNC

h. 20 JPY @ 72
i. pay down 15m @ Citi @ 85

Trades Aug 16

S XMBR @ 3.78 USD x 5k
B DBS @ 14.95 x 1.2k
S ADS @ 154.8 x 150
B OEL @ 0.425 x 35k

Best exercise regime

Running 20 km per week
30-45 min each session
3-4 sessions per week

Three phases of an investment and three impt things in life

1. A period of waiting for an idea to work, need patience
2. When everyone agrees with you and the asset performs
3. Asset may still appreciate but need to sell as additional gains would be small

Life
1. Know the value of trust
2. Joy of friendship
3. Futility of envy

If you go back and study the great investors in history, Medicis, Morgan's, Rothschilds and recently Buffett, these great investors share a common trait: they were in a position to be liquidity providers. Each willing to hold cash until someone was in distress or under duress, and they could provide liquidity at very attractive prices.

Lessons from senpai

On kids education:

1. Make sure to expose them more to language when they are young, it is not about mugging, find the love for language, love for reading, movies, tours etc

2. Ok with school, no need to love school but cannot hate going to school, it will be a big issue

3. Keep trying to find the right teachers, it's impt, Meng Mu San Qian

JCNC

Sold JCNC 700 shrs @ 43

Singaporeans in US

30,000 S.ingaporeans living in the US

Why Yen Is Haven

It is normally thought that the currencies of countries with ultralow interest rates are more likely to come under selling pressure. Low interest rates, after all, do not appeal to those who want their nest eggs grow.

They do, however, appeal to investors who get an itch to place risky bets. Speculators sometimes place these bets by borrowing in yen, then using the Japanese currency to buy a currency of a country with high interest rates and high market fluctuation risk.

There is a term for this: the yen-carry trade.

In times of market turmoil, however, currencies of countries with ultralow interest rates are more likely to come under buying pressure. The speculators, now worried, want to unwind their carry-trade positions.

As a result, the yen spikes.

Analysts' views are divided as to how common carry trades are. Still, though, psychology plays an important role in the market, so mere expectations for carry-trade unwinding are enough to convince investors to buy the yen during times of turmoil.

As of the end of 2015, Japan's net foreign assets -- overseas assets held by the government, companies and individuals minus their overseas debts -- came to about 339 trillion yen ($3.36 trillion). This is one of the world's largest asset piles.

It is also behind the yen's haven status. An economic shock would prompt Japanese investors to repatriate their foreign-currency-denominated assets. In other words, there would be a sudden rush to buy yen.

That said, Daisaku Ueno, chief foreign exchange strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, is skeptical that the yen will retain this status forever. If the country's fiscal conditions continue to deteriorate and inflation rears its head, the yen would be kicked out of club haven.

Mindful sharing

Never manage by fear
Not losing temper
Appeal to higher aspirations
No favouritism including oneself

Companyofgood.sg

PSC Chairman letter

The Quest for Diversity

7.    The PSC has always sought to ensure that public servants should have a variety of expertise and background to help solve the country’s diverse needs and problems. The PSC does not force diversity on candidates for diversity’s sake. We do not have rigid quotas for different countries, universities or courses, but bear in mind the interests and inclinations of the candidates themselves when making offers. This must be so because our very top candidates today have many other scholarship options available, including bond-free scholarships from some top American universities.

8.    In its early days, PSC sought diversity by sending its scholars to study in different countries, as well as in Singapore. Our top scholars studied mainly in the UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, mostly financed by the Colombo Plan. Some also went to Germany, France, Japan, and later on to the US and China. (The PSC launched the China Scholarship Programme in 2009 and nine scholars from our first batch have graduated and are now doing their Master’s in the US.) The attempt to continue to send our scholars to countries other than the UK and the US continues today, and the PSC encourages applicants to consider studying in such “non-traditional” countries. In the last ten years, only about 7% of our scholars studied outside US/UK/Singapore, both as undergraduates and graduates. We would really like to see more doing so. Our scholars should see value in putting themselves out of their comfort zones to gain unusual experiences. They should not regard higher education as an exercise to collect degrees from renowned universities to burnish their CVs.

9.    Yet another way of ensuring diversity is to send our scholars to study a variety of courses. Over the last 10 years, 42% studied Econs/PPE[1]/Law, 31% studied Science/Math/Engineering/Medicine, 25% studied Liberal Arts/Other Arts/Humanities & Social Sciences, and 2% studied Finance/Business Admin/Accountancy. We would start to worry if the variety of courses narrows significantly.

10.    We also like to see our scholars study in different universities, rather than only in the well-known Ivy League universities or Oxbridge. Public officers are, and have always been, judged by their performance on the job, not by the pedigree of their academic credentials. The Permanent Secretaries at the top of the Public Service have never come from only the Ivy League universities or Oxbridge. Those aspiring to be public servants should realise that their performance will often be enhanced if they can bring a new perspective to help tackle a public policy issue, gained by their stint in a “non-traditional” university or “non-traditional” country.

Guarding Against Elitism

11.    The PSC is also acutely conscious of the need to have public servants coming from all socio-economic classes, lest we end up breeding a class of elitist public servants who lack empathy. While it does not follow that only those with a less fortunate background can empathize with the poor, a Public Service comprising only the privileged and upper classes will add to the impression that meritocracy leads to a lack of social mobility in Singapore. I believe that we should level the playing field for our students to have equal chances of winning scholarships, but the way to ensure this is to help the less advantaged throughout their school lives, starting from pre-school, and not by discriminating against the well-off when they appear before the PSC. Not only is it too late, it will also be harmful.

12.    A good proxy indicator of social-economic class is what schools these candidates come from. The PSC continues to reach out to students from different schools and backgrounds in our outreach efforts. These efforts have ridden on prevailing educational changes and broadened our intake of scholars in recent years. Over the last 10 years, 68% of scholars came from RI and Hwa Chong, peaking in 2007 at 82%. In the last two years, they comprised 60% of the total cohort. In 2002, the first Polytechnic student was awarded a PSC Overseas Merit Scholarship. Students from JCs such as Pioneer, St. Andrew’s and Nanyang are also starting to receive scholarships. They no longer rule themselves out from applying, on the mistaken belief that they have no chance. This trend will continue as our top talent continues to spread throughout our schools. There will always be top schools which are more popular than others. There is nothing wrong in this, so long as they continue to take in students from all socio-economic classes, and the overall landscape allows students from other schools a chance to enter and rise to the top in any career, including the Public Service.

13.    This emerging diversity has not been achieved at the cost of ability. High standards have been retained and PSC only awards scholarships to those who truly deserve them. We continue to subscribe to meritocracy and do not practise affirmative action or positive discrimination.

JPY Ppty Hedge

Getting more troublesome

Entered 2 x 20k at 80
Deficit -2.6k
Topped up JPY balance 2x
1st time 100,000 yen
2nd time 200,000 yen

Tgt 3rd 1x 20k at 72

Current 74.94

Fragile 5 (2015)

Mexico is seen as vulnerable because its reserve coverage ratio, its foreign exchange reserves divided by its funding gap — the capital needed to balance its current account deficit, repay short-term funding and compensate for any drying up of foreign direct investment — is just 1.6 years, far less than the seven years of Russia, another struggling oil exporter.

Mexico’s perceived lack of “wiggle room” is exacerbated by its real interest rate of close to zero, leaving little flexibility to cut rates if its economy weakens further.

“Mexico, a country that many investors consider a safe haven, is now showing up as a high-risk emerging market,” said Mr Garcia-Amaya.

EM external risk scores (Q1 2013 v Q2 2015)

	Q1 2013	Q2 2015
Rank 1	Taiwan, Philippines, China, Korea, Russia	Taiwan, Korea, Chile, Philippines, China
Rank 2	Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Hungary, Colombia	Russia, Thailand, Hungary, Poland, Peru
Rank 3	Poland, Czech Republic, Mexico, Thailand, Malaysia	Czech Republic, Brazil, India, Malaysia, Argentina
Rank 4	Chile, Indonesia, India, Turkey, South Africa	Mexico, Indonesia, Colombia, South Africa, Turkey
Sources: JPMorgan Asset Management; IMF; World Bank; Oxford Economics. Data as of Jun 30 2015. Rank 1=low risk, Rank 4=high risk

Turkey and South Africa, both with large external imbalances and significant political risk, remain the highest risk nations, with Turkey — particularly reliant on short-term funding — now the most fragile of all.

However India’s structural reforms under Prime Minister Narendra Modi have allowed it to climb the table, with the country also a big beneficiary of lower oil prices.

Noppo no Kirin

Mitani **Yo
Urakami Eriko
Fujita
Miyazaki ? Miyamoto ? Miyazawa ?
Ueno
Hasegawa, Yonezawa
Nagaarashi
Ibaraki
2011 last twitter
Nov Komabasai - got clues maybe

Trades Jun 16 2

8410 @ 314 x 5k = 1.57m (Nom)

River Valley land price

Bottom is around $1,100 to 1,200 psf
Guoco land bidded for one plot in May 16 for $1,200 psf
Highline for Keppel land $1,163 psf

Orphans in Japan

40,000 children in institutions, not enough foster parents to take them (only 10,000 and adoption rate is 500)

Foster children are emotionally unbalanced, wants to be fed from milk bottles as teenagers etc.

Navy Seals Lessons Learnt

Navy Seals talk

Standards: is about a minimum not average, we must keep improving. Set minimum standards for ourselves and then keep improving. What are my standards? Exercise 3x per week?

Team: Good teams look out for one another, a team is about covering others' back. Cannot undermine one another. Brotherhood. Same as family. Trust. Seal story: comrade was sent to setup base 10,000 feet in the snow, ambushed by enemies. Seals went to get his body back at all cost, spent more lives and resources and 24 hours just to get one body back. This is what it meant by brotherhood, covering others' back.

Flow: need to know our zone. Be at our zone more and more often, 10% to 20% to 50%. Observe. Why we are not in zone? Why we are in zone. When we become super good. Why? Case in point: tried to skive, go Minami Haircut then scratch BMW. Not in the zone. Focus on task at hand, only do one thing at one time. Emails - super distractions.

Family: No more undermining. Be focused, keep doing things together. If on holiday, each doing own thing, family feuds. Be authentic, be real. People will feel your flow. Change the environment.

Toxic people: Create the culture to change their behaviour. Change the environment and make it unacceptable for them to be toxic.

Wisdom for Chris Haggerty.

Trades Jun 16

Sol S32 400 @ 88 = GBP 352
Bot Naspers 100 @ 218k (SGD 20k)

Le Freeport

270sqf of space, fully booked, new expansion planned
Engage Cisco for security
Tax free storage: attracts a lot of EU collectors where their home country taxes for storage
Can store cars but no fuel inside
$7-10k for a room type per year

Opioids and painkillers

20,000 Americans died from opioid overdoses (drug abuse mostly?)
Terminally ill - should use, cost only $2-5 a month
7m people die from cancer, HIV, accidents and war wounds with no pain relief
They should have access to more opioids

Risks: drug abuse become abundant
but should have more for terminally ill

Elders love helping robots

Elders in old folks home, despite their condition, wouldnt want to rely 100% on robots to take care of them. They want to be able to help the robots in some small ways if poss.

We all need a reason to live, and it could be as mundane as helping robots?

Japan Dependency Ratio

1.3 Japanese of working age supporting every senior by 2060
100,000 Japanese quit job every year to take care of elderly or sick relative
45% of Japanese household has one elderly to take care

Gold

US listed SPDR gold shares is 5% of total world demand.
Cost for extracting gold is $900 for the sector.

Trade May 15

Bot 4200 Samsonite at HKD 23.00

Super Stocks

1. SAB Miller
2. SAP *
3. Reckitt
3. Fresenius KGAA
5. WPP
6. Experian
7. LSE
8. Want Want
9. Symrise *
10. NRI
11. Dairy Farm
12. Shenzhou Intl
13. Sun Art Retail
14. William Hill
15. Samsonite
16. Belle
17. Vitasoy
18. Starbucks *
19. 3M
20. Mondelez

Diabetes in Asia

WHO data bears this out. According to a March report, the number of adults living with diabetes globally has increased to 422 million from 108 million in 1980. The western Pacific region, including China and Japan, account for 131 million.

In India, the number of diabetes patients totaled 31.7 million in 2000 and is projected to rise to 79 million by 2030. Diabetes is expected to be the world's seventh largest killer by 2030 "unless intense and focused efforts are made by governments, communities and individuals," Dr. Poonam Khetrapal Singh, WHO's regional director for Southeast Asia, said recently to the Times of India.

Along with growing urbanization and rising per capita income have come changing social perceptions, fast-food diets and the overconsumption of relatively unhealthy foods typically associated with obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, strokes and some cancers. In step with changing public demand, the private sector has responded as new market opportunities have emerged.

Businesses ranging from weight loss clinics to "detox centers" and fitness clubs have appeared in countries that might once have been characterized by consumers more focused on meeting basic daily needs than on specialized health, allergy and cosmetic treatments.

A case in point is Asia's burgeoning weight management industry. Euromonitor International estimates that the industry will grow to $202 billion in 2018, with most growth coming from emerging markets. Already in 2013, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 12% of weight management retail sales globally, growing by 57% from 2008.

ASEAN Banks

Risks

Indon - NIM is too high but sustained for 15 years
65% of CASA deposits with the 3 banks, very strong

Thailand - SME loan book risk
NPL ratio and debt servicing not so good

Sg - oil and gas, China exposure

Malaysia - dangerous, bad debts rising
NPL ratio and debt servicing is worst

Phils - ok

Saving grace: healthy Tier 1 ratio and loan loss reserves

Robots helping to keep Japanese farms alive and thriving

4. Robots helping to keep Japanese farms alive and thriving

Japanese farmers are under pressure from both cheap imports and declining productivity due to the aging of the population. But some are starting to take action. A high-tech approach is one solution, and they are also changing their way of doing business to take advantage of their strengths.

On a recent evening at 7 p.m., the sound of a machine echoed from a greenhouse in Yamamoto, Miyagi Prefecture, in northern Japan. A 1.5-meter tall robot was picking bright red strawberries in the dark, without human assistance.

Using its two high-performance cameras, the robot located the fruit with a flash of light, then gently stretched out its arm to pick only the ripest, sweetest ones. As a result, the farmer can ship fresh strawberries first thing in the morning.

Farm equipment maker Shibuya Seiki developed the harvest robot, which sells for 40 million yen ($374,100) per unit. The company, based in Ehime Prefecture, on the island of Shikoku in western Japan, is conducting demonstration experiments of the cutting-edge technology.

Generally speaking, growing strawberries in Japan requires 2,100 man-hours per 1,000 sq. meters. The number is 80 times higher than for rice, another crop that needs great care. Finely-shaped, deliciously sweet strawberries produced in Japan are considered a high-end brand item among wealthy consumers in Asian countries. But Japanese strawberry farmers are coming under heavy pressure due to the shortage of skilled labor.

Japan's agricultural productivity is rather low compared to other countries, but the development of industrial robots holds promise in easing the problem.

In Tottori Prefecture, western Japan, Coho salmon swim in aquaculture tanks floating off the coast near the city of Sakaiminato.

The facility's operator, Nippon Suisan Kaisha, has installed auto-feeding robots, delivering just the right amount of feed to maintain the growth of its farmed fish, even in bad weather. The technology also prevents excess feed from polluting the surrounding sea.

Stronger together

Using industrial robots can help keep farms and fishing operations open 24 hours a day, just like a Japanese convenience store.

In Japan, people 65 years old and older account for more than 60% of the agriculture workforce -- double the number in the U.S. Many believe that robots hold the key to maximizing productivity of farming and fishing, given the country's limited land and human resources. Tsukasa Teshima, a senior researcher at the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, said the robot will partner with farmers and help create new forms of agriculture. The organization has been conducting research and development on Japanese agriculture and food.

Advanced technology is also starting to challenge the mindset of farmers, who traditionally focus on producing crops, and their products are usually sold by other entities. But at least one early mover is looking to expand its presence in the near future.

In Chiba Prefecture, northeast of Tokyo, Shigeru Someya, a rice and wheat farmer, recently introduced a self-driving tractor produced by Japanese farm machinery maker Kubota and  spent 1 million yen for a control system. He believes the tractor will improve efficiency, and he has gained management know-how since starting a co-operative farm stand to sell crops directly to consumers. "We set the prices," said Someya. "Because we are selling our products by ourselves, we can now decide the direction for growth."

Refurbishing the land

Abandoned farmland in Japan totals roughly 42,000 hectares, about the size of Toyama Prefecture, on the coast of the Sea of Japan. Such disused farmland is expected to continue to expand and deteriorate, due to an inflow of cheap imported agricultural products.

But some innovative companies are bucking the trend. Ehime-based venture company Telefarm has played a key role in bringing new life to farmland left derelict for more than 10 years in the mountains around the city of Ozu, Ehime Prefecture.

Refurbishing the land, including removing tree roots with heavy machinery and other labor, cost roughly 1.3 million yen. But the money did not come from the traditional sources of agricultural cooperatives or banks. The project attracted 140 capital investors from across the country, who are now waiting to see the results of their investment in the reclaimed land. It took three months to raise the cash through crowdfunding -- sourcing funds over the internet from a large number of people who agree with the concept of the project. Along with the tech-oriented approach, the internet and its potential to connect any number of people around the world is helping to create new channels of funding in Japanese agriculture.

Japan's impairment

According to Tokyo-based M&A adviser Recof, Japanese companies' cross-border acquisitions exceeded 10 trillion yen in 2015 for the first time.

As Japanese companies invest more in foreign markets, they would do well to keep this 3 trillion yen lesson in mind, and do their homework before snapping up a tempting acquisition.

Stages of successful EM investing

1. Chaos but some stability came, as a result of change in govt, a new leader in charge etc

2. Macroeconomic stabilization, inflation comes down

3. Functioning capital market, no need a lot of bets, just 1 or 2 stocks

Rehypothecate

If I have a margin account, and I buy one share of IBM and then I use that to borrow another $100 on my IBM, Bear Sterns can take that one share of IBM that’s in my account and borrow against it for their own purposes. Pledge it as collateral to another bank and give me a $100 Bear Sterns IOU in my account. Now, I’ll still... My equity will go up and down based on the price of IBM, but I won’t have a share in there. I’ll actually have a Bear Sterns IOU.

01:00:08
So if the music stops and Bear Sterns files bankruptcy, suddenly as opposed to my share of IBM in my account, I’m an unsecured creditor of Bear Sterns. And that’s what the hedge fund and other communities realised belatedly, having not gone through this before. The other dress rehearsal was LTCM in 98. And they began to shrink their balances to ensure that they weren’t incurring margin debt, and that was forcing Bear Sterns to return the collateral, and thus... 

Tiger Temple

Collects USD 6m in tourist receipts per year
Bred 281 tigers but only 148 left
Suspected of illegal trading of animals

From NYT, Thai Officials battle Buddhist monks over Tigers' fate at popular temple

Sg ppty

22,000 private ppty and 29,000+ hdb coming in 2016
Resale up from 5000 in 2014 to 6000 in 2015
$1.5bn of QC and ABSD charges to be imposed on developers
SingHaiyi group - wanted to dispose of City Suites in Balestier but was rejected by authorities
More developers needing to cut prices to avoid punitive financial charges
SIBOR to rise from 1.5% to 2% by end 2016
5-10% of households with debt servicing ratio above 60% could be vulnerable to rising interest rates
Total employment growth slowed to 1%
Redundancies at 14,400

SCB paid to Citi

14m yen SCB to Citi @81.1

USD 35 + SGD 215 txn fee

original 59m
Citi 45m
SCB 14m

ideal
SCB 14m
Philip 7m
Paid down 5m
Citi 33m

Yen at SCB

7m more initiated at 81.5

Japanese lawyers

average income of lawyers is about $80k in 2014 vs $160k in 2006

No. of cases 90k but no, of lawyers grew from 23,000 to 36,000

But per capita still very low

29 per 100k

vs

US 377
UK 240
Germany 202
France 91

Timetable

Chinese and Japanese buying overseas stuff at high valuation

Now comes exhibit B: Anbang Insurance Group. Founded 12 years ago as a provincial car and property underwriter, Anbang has recently barged into wealth management, selling precariously high-yielding life insurance contracts and more than doubling its assets in a little over a year.

Laden with its clients’ savings, it has embarked on a wild shopping spree, spending nearly $2bn on New York’s Waldorf Astoria, promising $6.5bn for hotels owned by private equity group Blackstone and offering $14bn in a high-profile contest to acquire Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, owner of the W, Westin and Sheraton brands.

Within a few years of the Rockefeller and Bel Air purchases, the Japanese acquirers offloaded them for less than 60 cents on the dollar. In all, Japan is thought to have lost $400bn on US property during this period. Perhaps, knowing this history, the Chinese will prove more prudent. Then again, perhaps not.

Anbang is only the most extreme example of a recent shift. This year Chinese companies have bid more than $100bn for foreign assets, a sum approaching the $106bn recorded in the whole of 2015.

March 23, 2016 9:19 am

Airlines complain to Brussels over parts and maintenance contracts

Peggy Hollinger, Industry Editor

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©Bloomberg

Airlines have lodged a formal complaint with European regulators over the $60bn market for spares and repairs on the world’s fleet of 24,000 aircraft, as EU investigators intensify their preliminary inquiry into whether carriers are being forced to accept anti-competitive maintenance contracts.

Iata, the airline industry lobby group, last week sent a letter to the European Commission listing grievances such as requirements by engine and component manufacturers to use only their spare parts for repairs.

The preliminary probe, first revealed by the Financial Times last year, is focused on maintenance support for the CFM56 turbine and Rolls-Royce’s Trent XWB engines, as well for components including auxiliary power systems made by Honeywell.Meanwhile, Brussels is demanding further information from aircraft suppliers in a sign that it is deepening its informal inquiry into the workings of the maintenance and repair market. No formal investigation has yet been launched.

Safran, the French engine maker, and CFM, its joint venture with General Electric of the US, are among those to have received a follow-up letter to the original questionnaire sent to dozens of suppliers last autumn. Rolls-Royce and Honeywell said they had not as yet received a second request for information.

The rising costs of aircraft maintenance have been roundly attacked by airline chiefs at British Airways, Air France, Ryanair and Lufthansa. Carriers complain that some original equipment suppliers are withholding repair information from qualified third-party maintenance shops, which they say limits competition and pushes up prices. They want the commission to set limits on what equipment suppliers can define as intellectual property, which would open up the maintenance market to a wider range of suppliers.

However, suppliers such as engine manufacturers rely on the lucrative aftersales service market for their profits. New engines are often sold at a loss, with the returns made on long-term service contracts. Attempts to disrupt this model could force airlines into bigger upfront expenditure, say industry experts. Components suppliers are also looking to tap into the higher margin aftersales service market to make up for demands from aircraft makers that they take on a greater share of the risk in new aircraft programmes.

The trend to limit the choice of engine and other components on new aircraft programmes has given added urgency to airlines’ complaints.

©Bloomberg

“When airlines are negotiating with suppliers they do not have the leverage they would have in a normal competitive situation,” said a person with knowledge of the situation. “Are manufacturers right to say that airlines have to buy spare parts from them in perpetuity?”

The commission refused to comment beyond confirming that it is “closely monitoring competitive conditions as regards maintenance of engines and components for large commercial aircraft”. Iata confirmed it had lodged a formal complaint.

The maintenance, repair and overhaul market is set for robust growth over the next decade thanks to the unprecedented number of new generation aircraft coming into service. Aerospace consultancies such as ICF International and Technavio estimate the market will grow from $60bn this year to more than $80bn by 2025.

Maintaining and repairing an aircraft accounts for roughly 10-13 per cent of an airline’s operating costs and the complex job of servicing the roughly 30,000 components on an aircraft is often outsourced to a third party.